BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-73%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.00.0015
20265.70.0015
20275.50.0015
20285.30.0015
20295.00.0014

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OlneyTEXAS382024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS342019
MegargelTEXAS282024
GrafordTEXAS272019
OakwoodTEXAS251995
AlbanyTEXAS242024
SeldenTEXAS222024
CottonwoodTEXAS222024
HobsonTEXAS212024
DuranTEXAS211999
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA141977
Arenosa CrkTEXAS142024
E GeorgetownTEXAS141979
Three RiversTEXAS142024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA132018
DuncanOKLAHOMA122024
GreenvilleTEXAS122024
LocoOKLAHOMA101985
MuldoonTEXAS102024
Glen RoseTEXAS102024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS102024
Blue RidgeTEXAS102024
WeatherfordTEXAS92024
SadlerTEXAS92024
CayugaTEXAS92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.