BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-72%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.90.0015
20275.70.0015
20285.50.0015
20295.20.0015
20305.00.0014

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OlneyTEXAS382024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS342019
HobsonTEXAS272025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS262025
OakwoodTEXAS251995
GrafordTEXAS222025
Three RiversTEXAS212025
DuranTEXAS211999
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA172025
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA141977
E GeorgetownTEXAS141979
CottonwoodTEXAS142025
WalburgTEXAS142025
BurtonTEXAS142025
ComancheTEXAS142025
DuncanOKLAHOMA132025
Massey LakeTEXAS132025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA122025
MuldoonTEXAS122025
Glen RoseTEXAS122025
AlbanyTEXAS122025
OsageTEXAS112025
SeldenTEXAS112025
RhomeTEXAS112025
FanninTEXAS112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.