BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Edwards Plateau has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has fallen sharply in Edwards Plateau: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026140.0031
2027130.0030
2028120.0029
2029120.0029
2030110.0028

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San SabaTEXAS352025
Dripping SpgTEXAS282025
BoerneTEXAS272025
HarperTEXAS262025
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS252025
Allen CreekTEXAS242025
UtopiaTEXAS232025
Valley SpgsTEXAS212025
AdamsvilleTEXAS202025
RockspringTEXAS182025
ManorTEXAS172024
GeorgetownTEXAS161985
Pidcoke 2TEXAS162025
KempnerTEXAS132025
LeakeyTEXAS132025
FitzhughTEXAS111983
Indian MtnTEXAS102025
PidcokeTEXAS82017
Manor 2TEXAS82025
MontellTEXAS42025
LeanderTEXAS22006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.