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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Edwards Plateau has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has fallen sharply in Edwards Plateau: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025140.0031
2026130.0030
2027130.0030
2028120.0029
2029110.0029

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pidcoke 2TEXAS462024
HarperTEXAS342024
San SabaTEXAS302024
Valley SpgsTEXAS272024
UtopiaTEXAS262024
Allen CreekTEXAS222024
RockspringTEXAS222024
LeakeyTEXAS212024
KempnerTEXAS202024
ManorTEXAS172024
GeorgetownTEXAS161985
AdamsvilleTEXAS152024
Dripping SpgTEXAS122024
FitzhughTEXAS111983
BoerneTEXAS82024
PidcokeTEXAS82017
MontellTEXAS72024
Indian MtnTEXAS62024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS32024
LeanderTEXAS22006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.