BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+241%Since 1974
18Routes In Region
47Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lark Sparrow has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.12–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029
0.41Projected 2029 index
0.12–0.6995% range
±35.9%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.380.100.66
20260.390.100.67
20270.390.110.68
20280.400.120.68
20290.410.120.69

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Augusta 2ARKANSAS92016
EnglandARKANSAS42024
BlodgettMISSOURI42024
EudoraARKANSAS22016
SaffellARKANSAS22019
KelsoARKANSAS22016
HarrisburgARKANSAS12006
AugustaARKANSAS11999
MaynardARKANSAS12022
BardwellKENTUCKY11982
FloydLOUISIANA12010
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12024
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA12022
Rayville 2LOUISIANA12024
TippoMISSISSIPPI12023
DeventerMISSOURI12023
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI12022
KennettMISSOURI12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.