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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+213%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Lark Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.41 (95% range 0.13–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.41 (95% range 0.13–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.110.67
20270.400.120.68
20280.400.120.68
20290.410.130.69
20300.410.130.69

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Augusta 2ARKANSAS92016
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA42025
EnglandARKANSAS32025
BlodgettMISSOURI32025
SaffellARKANSAS22019
KelsoARKANSAS22016
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI22025
KennettMISSOURI22025
EudoraARKANSAS12025
HarrisburgARKANSAS12006
AugustaARKANSAS11999
MaynardARKANSAS12022
BardwellKENTUCKY11982
FloydLOUISIANA12010
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12024
Rayville 2LOUISIANA12024
TippoMISSISSIPPI12023
DeventerMISSOURI12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.