BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Oklahoma has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-9%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 5.7–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 5.7–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025145.722
2026145.722
2027145.722
2028145.722
2029145.722

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clear Lake6420241992
Felt5520241968
Phroso4320241991
Rosston4120181967
Woodward3420241992
Cooperton3320241992
Cashion3120241992
Lookout3020231967
Colony3019951995
Hollis2920241993
Sickles2820211992
Wichita Mtns2719941994
Chester2519881967
Reed2420191968
Ft Sill West2319941994
Phillips2220081968
Beaver2220181979
Tegarden2120161967
Grimes2020241967
Elgin2020151994
Wichita Mts West1820222004
Verden1620171967
Cookietown1520061968
Hardesty1520241970
Jet1520241992

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.