BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Oklahoma has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 6.0–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 6.0–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026146.022
2027146.022
2028146.022
2029146.022
2030146.022

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grimes7020251967
Felt5520241968
Clear Lake5420251992
Lookout5020251967
Phroso4320251991
Rosston4120181967
Cooperton3320251992
Hollis3320251993
Woodward3220251992
Cashion3120241992
Colony3019951995
Sickles2820211992
Wichita Mts West2820252004
Wichita Mtns2719941994
Chester2519881967
Reed2420191968
Ft Sill West2319941994
Phillips2220251968
Beaver2220181979
Tegarden2120161967
Elgin2020151994
Ardmore1720251967
Wichita Mtns East1720252004
Verden1620171967
Cookietown1520061968

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.