BirdAnalyst
Guild · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In Nebraska

All statesNebraska

16 species in this guild. As a group they are -20%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for grassland birds in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Grassland Birds In Nebraska Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 11–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161121
2027161121
2028161121
2029161121
2030161121

Member Species In Nebraska

Grassland birds species in Nebraska.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Chestnut-collared LongspurCalcariidae-95%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-74%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-72%
Lark BuntingPasserellidae-70%
Cassin's SparrowPasserellidae-65%
Thick-billed LongspurCalcariidae-62%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-46%
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-16%
DickcisselCardinalidae-5%
Horned LarkAlaudidae+21%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae+29%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae+50%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae+98%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae+114%
BobolinkIcteridae+147%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae+255%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.