BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bobolink Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Nebraska has surged: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+147%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has surged in Nebraska: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bobolink Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.2 (95% range 2.6–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.2 (95% range 2.6–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.02.45.6
20274.12.55.7
20284.12.55.7
20294.22.65.8
20304.22.65.8

Bobolink Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Bobolink in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler Co6620251978
Hay Springs4620242018
Kennedy2320251977
Midway2020251967
Bassett1720252018
Brownlee1420251990
Winside1320031969
Eagle Creek1320251967
Piester Lake1320251967
Chambers1320252023
Berea1120251982
Madison1020252025
Sparta920251967
Boelus820222018
Murdock820252023
Bartlett719761967
Dalton720152015
Mullen720231996
Almeria620211969
Swan Lake520251979
Crescent Lk520251980
Tilden520252019
Pine Ridge420252001
Johnstown420221975
Gordon420242002

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.