BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Nebraska has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+144%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has surged in Nebraska: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bobolink Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.1 (95% range 2.5–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.1 (95% range 2.5–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.02.45.6
20264.02.45.6
20274.12.45.7
20284.12.55.7
20294.12.55.8

Bobolink Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Bobolink in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hay Springs4620242018
Wheeler Co3120241978
Chambers2720232023
Sparta2420211967
Kennedy2320241977
Bassett2220242018
Midway1620231967
Brownlee1420241990
Winside1320031969
Ponca1320182018
Swan Lake1120231979
Berea920191982
Piester Lake820241967
Boelus820222018
Bartlett719761967
Dalton720152015
Mullen720231996
Almeria620211969
Eagle Creek620241967
Johnstown420221975
Gordon420242002
Nenzel420242019
Tilden420242019
Murdock420242023
Johnson320242001

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.