BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in West Virginia has surged: up 393% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+393%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has surged in West Virginia: up 393% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Bobolink Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in West Virginia is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.30–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in West Virginia is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.30–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.261.0
20260.650.271.0
20270.660.281.0
20280.670.291.0
20290.670.301.0

Bobolink Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Bobolink in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ruthbelle1420241975
Denmar620241990
Hix320161996
Bismark320211976
Greer320231997
Meadland220241997
Meadowville220241991
Pedro120222002
Bowden119991999
Bemis120242001
Paradise119801980
Lost River120152015
Canaan120162016
Valley Head120241971
Three Forks119841984
Green Bank120241978
Sugar Grove120191985
Dailey120182018
Mo Of Seneca119951991
Berryburg119961995
Bebee119861983
Mt Storm119741971
Clinton120241976

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.