BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bobolink Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in North Dakota has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Bobolink Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in North Dakota is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 22–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in North Dakota is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 22–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026312142
2027322142
2028322143
2029322243
2030332243

Bobolink Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Bobolink in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gorham6620251968
Sheyenne Lk5520251980
Dickinson4720251968
Horsehead Lk4120251980
Carson3620251988
Buchanan3520251967
Glen Ullin3520251982
Ft Yates3120041968
Danzig2920141982
Abercrombie2920121967
Bowesmont 22920162015
Tobacco2820191968
Nash2720171980
Regan2520251968
Denbigh2520251968
Danzig 22520252019
Bentley2420241988
Cooperstown2320251969
Bowman2320251967
Parshall2320131982
Turtle Mtns2320251980
Dunn Center2220251968
Cedar Creek1820221968
Solen1820252005
Stanley1720251967

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.