BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in North Dakota has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Bobolink Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in North Dakota is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 22–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in North Dakota is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 22–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025322142
2026322142
2027322243
2028332243
2029332243

Bobolink Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Bobolink in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheyenne Lk6120241980
Horsehead Lk5920241980
Dickinson5620241968
Bowman4820241967
Glen Ullin4720221982
Gorham4620181968
Regan3920221968
Ft Yates3120041968
Turtle Mtns3120241980
Danzig2920141982
Buchanan2920241967
Abercrombie2920121967
Bowesmont 22920162015
Tobacco2820191968
Carson2820241988
Nash2720171980
Denbigh2520241968
Danzig 22520242019
Dunn Center2420241968
Bentley2420241988
Parshall2320131982
Cooperstown2120241969
Forman1920241968
Emerado1820241973
Cedar Creek1820221968

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.