BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Missouri has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+110%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has surged in Missouri: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bobolink Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Missouri is projected to rise about 237% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.72–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+237%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.72–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±214.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Missouri is projected to rise about 237% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.72–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.622.9
20261.80.642.9
20271.80.672.9
20281.80.703.0
20291.90.723.0

Bobolink Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Bobolink in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lucerne4520212018
Mcfall1020241994
Sticklervill920241970
Kahoka2620222002
Syracuse620062003
Frazier620171969
Trenton620241972
New Hampton520242014
Warren419791979
Barnard320191999
Bolckow319871967
Emden220232017
Lincoln220242022
Rensselaer220191975
Kahoka219961977
Tarkio219841969
Laclede220241994
Kearney220082008
Cameron120191986
Watson120142002
Elmo120172017
Queen City120222017
Luray120242019
Hayden120122012
Madison120241972

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.