BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bobolink Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Missouri has surged: up 556% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+556%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has surged in Missouri: up 556% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bobolink Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Missouri is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.81–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.81–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±222.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Missouri is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.81–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.693.1
20271.90.723.2
20282.00.753.2
20292.00.783.2
20302.00.813.3

Bobolink Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Bobolink in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Hampton11920252014
Lucerne8420252018
Laclede920251994
Mcfall920251994
Trenton820251972
Lincoln720252022
Kahoka2620222002
Syracuse620062003
Frazier620171969
Warren419791979
Sticklervill420251970
Kirksville420251994
Barnard320191999
Bolckow319871967
Emden220232017
Rensselaer220251975
Kahoka219961977
Tarkio219841969
Kearney220082008
Cameron120191986
Watson120142002
Elmo120172017
Queen City120222017
Luray120242019
Hayden120122012

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.