BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bobolink Population Trend in New York

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in New York has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in New York. See the full index history below.

Bobolink Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in New York is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 2.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in New York is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 2.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.92.811
20276.82.711
20286.62.611
20296.52.511
20306.42.410

Bobolink Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Bobolink in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
West Bangor7919991990
Coventryvile5320231967
Nashville3420181967
Watertown2720121967
Waddington2719981981
Oxford2319761967
Naples2220251966
Duanesburg2020251966
Vestal Ctr2020191967
Cherry Hill2020191966
Dryden1620251966
Swain1620071967
Austerlitz1520251966
Gainesville1520231967
Philadelphia1520251980
Oxford 21520241977
Cobleskill1420231966
Branchport1420241967
Randolph1320181967
E Youngstown1320231966
Oneida1320101968
S Berne 21320252014
Corbettsvile1220251966
Romulus1220001968
Phillips Cr1220251967

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.