BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bobolink Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Kentucky has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

13×Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Bobolink Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Kentucky is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.18–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±150.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Kentucky is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.18–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.140.73
20270.440.150.73
20280.450.160.74
20290.460.170.75
20300.470.180.76

Bobolink Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Bobolink in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plum2220252008
Shelbyville219781978
East Union220222015
Million 2220242023
Johnsonville220052005
Eastview219861986
Goshen119981968
Glencoe119741974
Buena Vista119761976
Pleasurevill120181980
Sewell Shop120182018
Merrimac119981998
Hodgenville 2120172017

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.