BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Kentucky has surged: up 411% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+411%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has surged in Kentucky: up 411% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Bobolink Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Kentucky is projected to rise about 124% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.19–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+124%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±138%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Kentucky is projected to rise about 124% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.19–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.370.160.59
20260.380.170.59
20270.390.170.60
20280.390.180.61
20290.400.190.61

Bobolink Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Bobolink in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plum320242008
Shelbyville219781978
East Union220222015
Million 2220242023
Johnsonville220052005
Eastview219861986
Goshen119981968
Glencoe119741974
Buena Vista119761976
Pleasurevill120181980
Sewell Shop120182018
Merrimac119981998
Hodgenville 2120172017

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.