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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Kansas has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-71%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has fallen sharply in Kansas: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Bobolink Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.020.000.10
20170.020.000.10
20180.010.000.09
20190.010.000.09
20200.010.000.09

Bobolink Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Bobolink in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Logan719851985
Minneapolis419931993
Trading Post220062006
Seneca219821982
St John120011982
Severance120152001
Albert119991977
Wallace119821982
Leoville119781978
Rock Creek119891977

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.