BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Minnesota has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Bobolink Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Minnesota is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 2.8–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Minnesota is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 2.8–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.13.215
20269.03.115
20278.93.015
20288.82.915
20298.72.815

Bobolink Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Bobolink in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Stone5920121995
Hartland4820171968
Oklee4720211969
Greenbush3720241993
Tracy3520242004
Floodwood3220241967
Lockhart2620241993
Chandler2020231969
Bagley2020061995
Glyndon1620241978
Erie1620171976
Beltrami1520241967
Lake Bronson1520111978
Wylie1420241970
Nett Lake1320242013
Ash Creek1220241975
Badger1220181978
Arlington1120241967
Grygla1120171976
Lude1020231978
Warroad1020241993
Chatfield 2920242003
Redwood Fall820241978
Debs820241969
Whitewater 2820192012

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.