BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bobolink Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Minnesota has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Bobolink Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Minnesota is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 2.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Minnesota is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 2.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.82.915
20278.72.815
20288.62.714
20298.52.614
20308.42.614

Bobolink Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Bobolink in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Stone5920121995
Lockhart4920251993
Hartland4820171968
Oklee4720211969
Greenbush3020251993
Beltrami2620251967
Chandler2420251969
Bagley2020061995
Glyndon1820251978
Appleton1620251978
Erie1620171976
Mcgregor1620251993
Chatfield 21620252003
Floodwood1520251967
Lake Bronson1520111978
Wylie1420241970
Nett Lake1320242013
Badger1220181978
Tracy1220252004
Chokio North1220251993
Ash Creek1120251975
Redwood Fall1120251978
Evergreen1120251967
Grygla1120171976
Backus820251967

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.