BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bobolink Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Ohio has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bobolink Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has collapsed in Ohio: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bobolink Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Ohio is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.77 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Ohio is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.77 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.001.2
20270.000.001.2
20280.000.001.2
20290.000.001.2
20300.000.001.2

Bobolink Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Bobolink in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wayland2320171992
Bismark1219951967
Newport1219941966
Xenia920161966
Graytown819841966
Garrettsvile819911966
Kunkle620251992
Marion619831966
Meadowbrook519991991
Napoleon420251966
Ashley419911988
Birmingham420241989
Valley City420251996
Casstown420022002
Kalida320061966
No Kenton320041966
Kenton320031966
Smithfield320251978
New Somerset319891972
Dunlap319841967
Rome320252000
Hiram320211992
Kingsway220251966
Peru219781966
Herner Crns220181966

Bobolink Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.