BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Nebraska has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+114%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vesper Sparrow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has surged in Nebraska: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Vesper Sparrow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.81 (95% range 0.33–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.81 (95% range 0.33–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.311.3
20270.800.311.3
20280.800.321.3
20290.810.321.3
20300.810.331.3

Vesper Sparrow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thurston1220251971
Petersburg720232003
Lyons720252018
Johnson520251992
Kimball520252014
Marsland520212021
Bartley420172014
Tilden420252021
Winside 2420222008
Belvidere320251987
Eagle Creek319861972
Piester Lake320241968
Benkelman320071994
Crawford320191995
Gretna 2320252021
Oglala Nat. Grass.220021999
Holbrook219851985
Richland220241990
Almeria220211992
Dalton219751975
Johnstown220162016
Crescent Lk220171990
Sutherland220252025
Pine Ridge220022002
Madison220192018

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.