BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-73%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vesper Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Vesper Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±523.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±523.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±523.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.36
20260.140.000.36
20270.140.000.36
20280.140.000.36
20290.140.000.36

Vesper Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren619821979
New Hampton320242014
Emden320172017
Rockingham319991982
Peace Valley219991999
Watson220211992
Centertown219781978
Tarkio219871968
Cameron120191993
Kahoka2120122006
Barnard120192000
Elmo120172017
Weston120212021
Rensselaer120151977
Huntsville119951983
Kahoka119951995
Sticklervill120151970
Trenton120081988
Bolckow119871982
Millwood120152008
Laclede120132013
Kirksville120131995
Mcfall120221999

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.