BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Virginia has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vesper Sparrow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in Virginia: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Vesper Sparrow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±668.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±668.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±668.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.34
20230.000.000.34
20240.000.000.34
20250.000.000.34
20260.000.000.34

Vesper Sparrow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fincastle219771977
Quinby219791967
Hebron219951995
Star Tannery119941977
Taylorstown119881972
W Augusta120162012
Churchville120211966
Stanley119981966
Tryme120052005
Edinburg119681968
Jerome119781978
Rural Retrt119931982
Partlow119861977
David119821980
Covington119831967
Walkers120062006
Natural Brid119741974
Amherst119971997
Carters Brdg119761976
Iron Mtn.120102002
Hall119931993
Sharps119751968
Iron Mountain 3120142014
Ivanhoe119661966
Branchville119811967

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.