BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Ohio has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vesper Sparrow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in Ohio: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Vesper Sparrow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Ohio is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Ohio is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.002.0
20260.140.001.9
20270.060.001.8
20280.000.001.7
20290.000.001.7

Vesper Sparrow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bismark2919951967
Kenton1820131966
Xenia919741966
N Baltimore620181966
Meadowbrook620011966
Newport619941966
Bloomville520241992
Wilmington419961966
Peru319781966
Cosmos320121966
Winterset319721967
Vickery320241996
Lockport220211966
Napoleon220231966
Marion 2220242024
Ashley220041988
Garrettsvile219901980
Strongsville219791966
Herner Crns219881967
Kalida220191966
Troy219961966
Fulton220241966
South Olive219941994
New Somerset219791966
Darrtown220191966

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.