BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Kansas has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-20%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vesper Sparrow Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vesper Sparrow in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Vesper Sparrow Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.110.000.27
20250.110.000.27
20260.110.000.27
20270.110.000.27
20280.110.000.27

Vesper Sparrow Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ulysses1620032003
Ruleton420101981
Seneca320222007
Minneapolis319761976
Melrose219791979
Coats219721972
Barclay219841984
Grantville220132008
Olsburg220092006
Galesburg119751975
Longton119791979
Ashland119831969
Dover120072007
Buckeye120102010
Severance120232000

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.