BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Utah has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+20%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vesper Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vesper Sparrow in Utah. See the full index history below.

Vesper Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 3.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 3.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.73.014
20278.83.015
20288.93.115
20298.93.215
20309.03.315

Vesper Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
M Warner Res10620251993
Saleratus Cr8620181995
Neponset Res6120181995
Ant Flat-Ogden Can4720251994
Vernal4420181999
Beck 23920251990
Altonah3420251968
Dixie Nf3220251993
Skyline Driv2820251986
Hardware Ranch2620231994
Goose Creek Mtn.2620251997
E. Bear Lake2520251995
Fish Lake Nf2320251992
Beck2219871968
Crawford Mts2120232002
Lynn1820251982
Uintah Nf1819941987
Fayette1820251992
Grouse Creek1720101982
Moon Lake 21720232004
Soapstone1420251992
Monticello1320251998
Ferron1220252000
Bicknell1220251998
Cane Spr Des1020101993

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.