BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Utah has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vesper Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vesper Sparrow in Utah. See the full index history below.

Vesper Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 3.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 3.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.72.915
20268.83.015
20278.93.115
20288.93.115
20299.03.215

Vesper Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Saleratus Cr8620181995
M Warner Res7320241993
Neponset Res6120181995
Dixie Nf4620241993
Vernal4420181999
Altonah4220151968
Lynn4120231982
Fish Lake Nf4120241992
Goose Creek Mtn.3920231997
Ant Flat-Ogden Can3420231994
E. Bear Lake2920221995
Hardware Ranch2620231994
Beck2219871968
Crawford Mts2120232002
Uintah Nf1819941987
Heber Mtn.1820241996
Grouse Creek1720101982
Randolph1720241992
Moon Lake 21720232004
Pine Creek1620231998
Skyline Driv1320161986
Beck 21220181990
Ferron1220222000
Woodruff1120242002
Cane Spr Des1020101993

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.