BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in North Dakota has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vesper Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vesper Sparrow in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Vesper Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 15–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 15–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026241533
2027241533
2028241533
2029241533
2030241533

Vesper Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Douglas Crk8720251983
Stanley8420251967
Powers Lake6720251980
Edgeley5320251980
Denbigh5320251968
Dickinson5220251972
Emerado4520251973
Loraine4520191982
Sheyenne Lk4220251980
Wild Rose4120251982
Gorham4020251968
Cooperstown3920251969
Dunn Center3920251968
Carpio3920231967
Sydney3819831973
Buchanan3220251967
Tobacco3120191968
Zap3020241967
Abercrombie2920121967
Regan2720251970
Horsehead Lk2420251980
Walcott2120231967
Danzig 21920252019
Wimbledon1820251981
Parshall1620131983

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.