BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in North Dakota has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vesper Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vesper Sparrow in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Vesper Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 15–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 15–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025231532
2026231532
2027241532
2028241533
2029241533

Vesper Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Douglas Crk6520241983
Emerado5820241973
Dickinson5620241972
Stanley5420241967
Edgeley4520241980
Loraine4520191982
Wild Rose4320241982
Powers Lake4220241980
Horsehead Lk4020241980
Buchanan4020241967
Denbigh4020241968
Carpio3920231967
Sydney3819831973
Dunn Center3720241968
Cooperstown3420241969
Tobacco3120191968
Danzig 23120242019
Zap3020241967
Sheyenne Lk3020241980
Abercrombie2920121967
Golva2320231979
Walcott2120231967
Regan2020221970
Gorham1920181968
Parshall1620131983

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.