BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in New York has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vesper Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Vesper Sparrow has collapsed in New York: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Vesper Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.001.3
20260.230.001.3
20270.210.001.3
20280.180.001.2
20290.160.001.2

Vesper Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Orleans1020241967
Whitney Pt719721966
Byron720241967
Oxford619671967
Ballston Lk419691967
Dexter Lake419681968
Lisle319801967
Macdougall320231969
West Bangor319901990
Sciota319681968
Austerlitz220081967
Medusa219811968
Cobleskill219781966
Cayuga219961969
Trumansburg220021966
Rushville220241968
Branchport220001967
Cattaraugus219781967
East Java219761967
Castile220191967
Randolph220021967
Churchville220231968
Penfield219761968
N Victory 2220041978
Cicero Ctr219871966

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.