BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Minnesota has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-48%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vesper Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vesper Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Vesper Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.15–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.15–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.30.7712
20266.10.6112
20276.00.4612
20285.80.3011
20295.70.1511

Vesper Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Worthington4320242004
Appleton3720241978
Beltrami3620241967
Chokio3120241969
Redwood Fall2820241978
Tracy2620242004
Oklee2520211969
Lockhart2320241993
Huntley2220241967
Tenney2020161978
Chandler1920231969
Glyndon1920241978
Wylie1820241970
Fairmont1820231993
Greenbush1820241993
Chokio North1720241993
Gluek1620191967
Austin1620231993
Arlington1420241967
Franklin1420241993
Grygla1220171977
Maynard1120151967
Edwards1120241973
Le Roy1120241993
Knapp920191967

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.