BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Vesper Sparrow in Minnesota has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vesper Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vesper Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Vesper Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 8.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.20–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vesper Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 8.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.20–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.30.8012
20276.20.6512
20286.00.5012
20295.90.3511
20305.70.2011

Vesper Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Vesper Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Appleton4520251978
Worthington4320252004
Redwood Fall3920251978
Beltrami3820251967
Fairmont3720251993
Huntley3420251967
Chokio3320251969
Lockhart3220251993
Tracy3120252004
Oklee2520211969
Franklin2320251993
Chandler2220251969
Glyndon2220251978
Tenney2020161978
Wylie1820241970
Gluek1620191967
Austin1620231993
Chokio North1520251993
Ash Creek1220251975
Grygla1220171977
Arlington1120251967
Maynard1120151967
Edwards1120241973
Erie920171976
Frontenac920231994

Vesper Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.