BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baird's Sparrow Population Analysis

PasserellidaeGrassland birdsCentronyx bairdii

Baird's Sparrow has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-73%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Baird's Sparrow

The Baird's Sparrow (Centronyx bairdii) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the grassland birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open grasslands, prairie, pasture and hayfields.
Diet
Seeds and insects gathered from grasses and the ground.
Range
Recorded on 117 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 6 states, most concentrated in the Badlands and Prairies.
Family
Passerellidae · Grassland birds

Notable Baird's Sparrow TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baird's Sparrow has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Baird's Sparrow Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.08
20270.020.000.07
20280.010.000.07
20290.010.000.07
20300.010.000.07

Where the Baird's Sparrow Is Detected

BBS routes recording Baird's Sparrow, sized by most recent count.

Baird's Sparrow Population Trend by State

Baird's Sparrow population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a1
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a3
Montana+51%197154
North Dakota-96%196937
South Dakota-29%197014
Wyoming-40%19958

Baird's Sparrow Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Baird's Sparrow population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Rockies-71%19789
Prairie Potholes-69%196950
Badlands and Prairies-75%196955

Baird's Sparrow Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 73% since 1969. Grassland birds are North America's steepest-declining group, down roughly 50% since 1970 as prairie and pasture were lost.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.