BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baird's Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Baird's Sparrow in North Dakota has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baird's Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baird's Sparrow has collapsed in North Dakota: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Baird's Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±220.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±220.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±220.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.002.4
20260.000.002.4
20270.000.002.4
20280.000.002.4
20290.000.002.4

Baird's Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Baird's Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooperstown1019891989
Dunn Center720231968
Bowman520241967
Douglas Crk519981983
Gorham420181968
Bentley420091990
Wild Rose420221982
Dickinson320241968
Golva320231987
Braddock320021988
Carson220191997
Lake George220001967
Danzig219911982
Horsehead Lk220101980
Buchanan220051968
Lakota219881988
Ft Yates220041980
Carpio219981967
Roosevelt Pk220171997
Cedar Creek220221968
Sheyenne Lk220021980
Solen220072007
Sydney119791979
Edgeley119841984
Emerado119801980

Baird's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

minnesotamontanasouth-dakotawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.