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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baird's Sparrow Population Trend in Montana

All statesGrassland birds

Baird's Sparrow in Montana has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+64%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baird's Sparrow Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baird's Sparrow has risen sharply in Montana: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Baird's Sparrow Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.970.002.2
20260.980.002.2
20270.980.002.2
20280.990.002.2
20291.00.002.2

Baird's Sparrow Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Baird's Sparrow in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glentana2220242015
Two Dot1420241981
Westby1120242015
Savage920151990
Oswego720241978
Redstone720241983
Heart Butte720192015
Circle520211972
Albion520231982
Ester Lake520242015
Saco520242015
Whitlash520242018
Cleveland420241979
Winnett420182018
Hehn Draw420222022
Harlem320181980
Brusett320182018
Brandenberg319911970
Shelby320242015
Lambert320222022
Coleman Coulee320192017
Virgelle220191980
Augusta220151977
Locate220221982
Laurel219801980

Baird's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

minnesotanorth-dakotasouth-dakotawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.