BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baird's Sparrow Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Baird's Sparrow in South Dakota has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baird's Sparrow Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baird's Sparrow in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Baird's Sparrow Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow in South Dakota is projected to rise about 100% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±365%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±365%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow in South Dakota is projected to rise about 100% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±365%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.130.000.41
20250.130.000.41
20260.130.000.41
20270.130.000.41
20280.130.000.41

Baird's Sparrow Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Baird's Sparrow in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Pass320122012
Laplant319741972
Lodgepole220231990
Gettysburg219971996
Gorman119791979
Howard119701970
Reva119991990
Chamberlain119681968
Isabel120152015
Crow Creek119681968
Britton119771969
Forbes119861986
Long Lake120191969
Harding120161971

Baird's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

minnesotamontananorth-dakotawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.