BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baird's Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Baird's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baird's Sparrow has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.460.001.8
20260.430.001.8
20270.400.001.7
20280.370.001.7
20290.340.001.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Baird's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlentanaMONTANA222024
WestbyMONTANA112024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA101989
OswegoMONTANA72024
RedstoneMONTANA72024
WhitlashMONTANA52024
Ester LakeMONTANA52024
SacoMONTANA52024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA51998
ClevelandMONTANA42024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA42022
HarlemMONTANA32018
ShelbyMONTANA32024
LambertMONTANA32022
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA32002
VirgelleMONTANA22019
GildfordMONTANA22023
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA22000
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA21991
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA22010
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA22005
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA21988
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA21998
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22002
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA21997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.