BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baird's Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Baird's Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-75%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baird's Sparrow has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Baird's Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 108% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+108%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 108% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.001.0
20270.230.001.0
20280.210.001.0
20290.200.000.99
20300.180.000.98

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Baird's Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SavageMONTANA92015
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA72023
CircleMONTANA52021
AlbionMONTANA52023
WinnettMONTANA42018
Hehn DrawMONTANA42022
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA42018
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA42009
BrusettMONTANA32018
BrandenbergMONTANA31991
Coleman CouleeMONTANA32019
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA32024
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA32025
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA32023
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA31974
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA32012
ShawmutMONTANA22025
LocateMONTANA22022
PowdervilleMONTANA22017
Jordan SouthMONTANA22024
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA22004
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA22017
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA22022
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA22007
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.