BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baird's Sparrow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Baird's Sparrow in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-71%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baird's Sparrow has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Baird's Sparrow In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baird's Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.14
20270.000.000.14
20280.000.000.14
20290.000.000.13
20300.000.000.13

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Baird's Sparrow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heart ButteMONTANA72019
ShirleyWYOMING42002
Wolf CreekMONTANA32025
AugustaMONTANA22015
LaurelMONTANA21980
St MaryMONTANA12005
BoulderMONTANA12018
St. Mary 2MONTANA12009
Mtn ViewWYOMING11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.