BirdAnalyst
Guild · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Grassland Birds In Minnesota

All statesMinnesota

15 species in this guild. As a group they are -52%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Grassland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Minnesota, down 52% since 1969.

Grassland Birds In Minnesota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Minnesota is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Grassland birds in Minnesota is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.42.14.7
20273.32.04.6
20283.21.94.5
20293.21.94.4
20303.11.84.4

Member Species In Minnesota

Grassland birds species in Minnesota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Western MeadowlarkIcteridae-93%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-86%
Grasshopper SparrowPasserellidae-71%
Henslow's SparrowPasserellidae-61%
Eastern MeadowlarkIcteridae-55%
Vesper SparrowPasserellidae-39%
Savannah SparrowPasserellidae-39%
BobolinkIcteridae-32%
DickcisselCardinalidae-25%
Clay-colored SparrowPasserellidae+1%
Sedge WrenTroglodytidae+25%
LeConte's SparrowPasserellidae+51%
Horned LarkAlaudidae+192%
Lark SparrowPasserellidae+198%
Upland SandpiperScolopacidae+620%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.