BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

LeConte's Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

LeConte's Sparrow in Minnesota has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+170%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable LeConte's Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

LeConte's Sparrow has surged in Minnesota: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

LeConte's Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 390% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±452.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+390%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±452.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 390% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±452.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.780.001.7
20260.780.001.7
20270.790.001.7
20280.800.001.7
20290.800.001.7

LeConte's Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording LeConte's Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grygla720171976
Lake Bronson720111979
Erie620171976
Pine River420031990
Wylie420111984
Badger420181998
Big Stone320082008
Greenbush320241994
Backus220001972
Edwards220022002
Floodwood220001967
Little Fork220241969
Nett Lake220242013
Nebish120191989
Appleton119961996
Cromwell120221977
Wigwam Bay119811981
Mille Lacs120091997
Evergreen120091968
Glyndon120101993
Tenney120112011
Lockport120042004
Hart Lake120112006
Island Lake120171974
Cohasset120212012

LeConte's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

michiganmontananorth-dakotasouth-dakotawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.