BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

LeConte's Sparrow Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesGeneralists

LeConte's Sparrow in Wisconsin has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable LeConte's Sparrow Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

LeConte's Sparrow has collapsed in Wisconsin: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

LeConte's Sparrow Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±194.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±194.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±194.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.20
20260.060.000.20
20270.060.000.20
20280.060.000.20
20290.060.000.20

LeConte's Sparrow Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording LeConte's Sparrow in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buena Vista1420132012
Phillips420011987
Wis Rapids420222011
Bayfield320192012
Crandon320102010
Merrill219951970
Stevens Pt220122012
Stetsonville219981990
Chaffey120111970
Iron River120242015
Minong119801980
Loraine120021968
Cumberland120011970
Weyerhauser120191995
Couderay120052000
Exeland120021968
Rib Lake119871987
Irma119941970
Mcnaughton119701970
Washington I119931993
Cadott120092009
Unity119721972
Mather120211969
Elderon119891989
Amnicon Falls120192002

LeConte's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

michiganminnesotamontananorth-dakotasouth-dakota

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.