BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

LeConte's Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

LeConte's Sparrow in North Dakota has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable LeConte's Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

LeConte's Sparrow has collapsed in North Dakota: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

LeConte's Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.73 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2035.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2035.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.73 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2035.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.720.002.0
20260.720.002.0
20270.730.002.0
20280.730.002.0
20290.730.002.0

LeConte's Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording LeConte's Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Abercrombie 2520182017
Emerado320091983
Cooperstown320131970
Ft Yates319991996
Kempton220101982
Bowesmont220101969
Lakota220091981
Niles220121992
Bentley220001999
Parshall220101994
Douglas Crk219951995
Carson120012001
Walcott120072000
Edgeley120192010
Lake George120221998
Danzig120052001
Horsehead Lk120211988
Buchanan120231976
Nash119991995
Webster120111995
Rolla120132007
Regan120211995
Dunn Center120131984
Carpio119961994
Loraine120181984

LeConte's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

michiganminnesotamontanasouth-dakotawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.