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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

LeConte's Sparrow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

LeConte's Sparrow in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-64%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable LeConte's Sparrow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

LeConte's Sparrow has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

LeConte's Sparrow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.17
20260.050.000.16
20270.050.000.16
20280.050.000.16
20290.050.000.16

LeConte's Sparrow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording LeConte's Sparrow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pickford320241989
Bootjack219711968
Seney Nwr220161992
Ontonagon120192012
Herman119971997
Crystal Fls120102009
Pine River120131992
Maple Grove120131990
Gilchrist119871987

LeConte's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

minnesotamontananorth-dakotasouth-dakotawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.