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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Upland Sandpiper Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Minnesota has surged: up 620% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+620%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Upland Sandpiper Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has surged in Minnesota: up 620% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Upland Sandpiper Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Minnesota is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.17–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Minnesota is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.17–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.640.151.1
20270.650.151.1
20280.650.161.1
20290.660.161.2
20300.660.171.2

Upland Sandpiper Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chokio North1520251995
Tracy1120252005
Lockhart720241994
Huntley620251979
Redwood Fall520251978
Badger520051978
Franklin520252004
Chandler420251975
Chokio420241969
Lake Bronson420111978
Worthington420252004
Glyndon320251978
Beltrami320251973
Hartland219761968
Sherburne Nr219931991
Big Stone220121995
St Stephen219921967
Appleton220251980
Tenney220121978
Oklee219921979
Wylie220191971
Chatfield119671967
Ash Creek120251976
Lakeville120041972
Arlington120131967

Upland Sandpiper Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.