BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Minnesota has surged: up 507% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+507%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Upland Sandpiper Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has surged in Minnesota: up 506% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Upland Sandpiper Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Minnesota is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.14–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Minnesota is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.14–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.600.121.1
20260.610.131.1
20270.610.131.1
20280.620.131.1
20290.620.141.1

Upland Sandpiper Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chokio North2820241995
Huntley820241979
Chandler720231975
Lockhart720241994
Glyndon620241978
Redwood Fall520241978
Badger520051978
Chokio420241969
Lake Bronson420111978
Beltrami320231973
Hartland219761968
Ash Creek220241976
Sherburne Nr219931991
Big Stone220121995
St Stephen219921967
Tenney220121978
Oklee219921979
Wylie220191971
Chatfield119671967
Lakeville120041972
Arlington120131967
Courtland120241978
Maynard120002000
Dawson120231985
Princeton120041971

Upland Sandpiper Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.