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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in Alaska has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-81%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Upland Sandpiper Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has collapsed in Alaska: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Upland Sandpiper Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.10
20240.000.000.10
20250.000.000.10
20260.000.000.10
20270.000.000.10

Upland Sandpiper Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nabesna Road519981990
Dietrich Cmp320112011
Pinoche Tral (Short)219841984
Maclaren119861986
Monahan120031987
Cantwell120041986
Toklat120091982
Delta120011995
Savage120221997
Sheep Mtn120011985
Donelly Dome120042000
Tonsina120172017
Petersville120142014

Upland Sandpiper Population Trend in Other States

coloradoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.