BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Upland Sandpiper Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in North Dakota has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+171%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Upland Sandpiper Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has surged in North Dakota: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Upland Sandpiper Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in North Dakota is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.4–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in North Dakota is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.4–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026148.819
2027148.919
2028149.119
2029149.219
2030149.419

Upland Sandpiper Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Parshall5420131983
Ft Yates4220041969
Glen Ullin4220251982
Zap2920241967
Carpio2720231967
Loraine2720191982
Solen2720252005
Edgeley2420251980
Wild Rose2420251982
Powers Lake2420251980
Cooperstown2320251972
Cedar Creek2020221968
Stanley1820251967
Bentley1820241988
Dickinson1720251968
Bowman1720251969
Douglas Crk1520251982
Gorham1420251968
Sheyenne Lk1420251980
Regan1320251968
Denbigh1320251968
Carson1320251988
Sydney1019831967
Forman820251968
Buchanan820251967

Upland Sandpiper Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.