BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Upland Sandpiper Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Upland Sandpiper in North Dakota has surged: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+143%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Upland Sandpiper Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Upland Sandpiper has surged in North Dakota: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Upland Sandpiper Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in North Dakota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.3–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.3–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Upland Sandpiper in North Dakota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.3–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025148.719
2026148.819
2027149.019
2028149.119
2029149.319

Upland Sandpiper Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Upland Sandpiper in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Parshall5420131983
Solen4520242005
Ft Yates4220041969
Wild Rose3720241982
Zap2920241967
Carpio2720231967
Loraine2720191982
Powers Lake2720241980
Glen Ullin2120221982
Cedar Creek2020221968
Bentley1820241988
Dickinson1720241968
Dunn Center1420241973
Edgeley1220241980
Douglas Crk1220241982
Stanley1120241967
Carson1120241988
Sydney1019831967
Buchanan920241967
Denbigh920241968
Danzig 2920242019
Forman720241968
Wimbledon720241981
Horsehead Lk620241980
Gorham620181968

Upland Sandpiper Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.