BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sedge Wren Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Sedge Wren in Minnesota has increased: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sedge Wren Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sedge Wren in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Sedge Wren Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in Minnesota is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 3.4–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in Minnesota is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 3.4–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.53.29.7
20276.53.39.8
20286.63.39.8
20296.63.49.9
20306.73.49.9

Sedge Wren Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Sedge Wren in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tracy3320252004
Backus3220251967
Big Stone2920121995
Mahtowa2420231995
Mcgregor2420251993
Lake Bronson1920111978
Erie1820171976
Sherburne Nr1720251990
Wigwam Bay1620231967
Cromwell1320251967
Grygla1320171976
Greenbush1220251993
Pine River1120251969
Debs1120251969
Brainerd1120241993
Badger1020181978
Worthington1020252005
Brook Park1020251998
Mille Lacs920241969
Evergreen920251967
Lude920251978
Sherry Lake820221969
Chandler720252004
Princeton720251969
Little Fork720241969

Sedge Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.