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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sedge Wren Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGrassland birds

Sedge Wren in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sedge Wren Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sedge Wren has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Sedge Wren Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in Michigan is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in Michigan is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.54
20260.130.000.54
20270.130.000.53
20280.120.000.52
20290.120.000.52

Sedge Wren Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Sedge Wren in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pickford620241974
Lake City420101970
Coopersville420062006
Ontonagon320122012
Raco320001972
Brocky Lake220241981
Cunard220161985
Hamburg 2220062006
Skegemog Pt220031988
Big Rapids219881968
Riggsville219941968
Oberlin220081973
Bell Oak219811967
Prattville220041987
North Branch219981988
Pettysville219761976
Waldenburg219821976
Bergland119871986
Marenisco120191985
Bootjack120061968
Ned Lake120241994
Herman119931983
Hungerford120221992
Gibbs City120241993
Maple Grove120171967

Sedge Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.