BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sedge Wren Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Sedge Wren in North Dakota has surged: up 624% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+624%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sedge Wren Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sedge Wren has surged in North Dakota: up 624% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sedge Wren Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.5 (95% range 3.1–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.5 (95% range 3.1–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.12.87.5
20275.22.87.6
20285.32.97.7
20295.43.07.8
20305.53.17.8

Sedge Wren Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Sedge Wren in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheyenne Lk3520251986
Buchanan1920251969
Horsehead Lk1720251981
Lakota 21520252010
Forman1120251968
Edgeley920251984
Kempton820171969
Rolla720221969
Niles720251992
Bowesmont 2720162016
Danzig620141982
Bowman620192014
Emerado520251973
Wimbledon520251994
Nash520171981
Lakota520091968
Douglas Crk520231984
Montpelier520251995
Cooperstown420251971
Bowesmont420141968
Loraine420191986
Braddock420231988
Regan320251971
Abercrombie320102004
Denbigh320251971

Sedge Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorkohiopennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.