BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sedge Wren Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Sedge Wren in North Dakota has surged: up 568% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+568%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sedge Wren Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sedge Wren has surged in North Dakota: up 568% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sedge Wren Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in North Dakota is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 2.9–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in North Dakota is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 2.9–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.02.67.4
20265.12.77.5
20275.22.87.6
20285.32.87.7
20295.32.97.8

Sedge Wren Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Sedge Wren in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheyenne Lk3120241986
Regan1720221971
Horsehead Lk1520241981
Kempton820171969
Niles820241992
Montpelier820241995
Rolla720221969
Bowesmont 2720162016
Danzig620141982
Wimbledon620241994
Bowman620192014
Emerado520241973
Nash520171981
Lakota520091968
Douglas Crk520231984
Bowesmont420141968
Loraine420191986
Forman320231968
Edgeley320241984
Cooperstown320241971
Buchanan320241969
Abercrombie320102004
Danzig 2320242019
Lakota 2320242010
Sydney219801978

Sedge Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorkohiopennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.