BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sedge Wren Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Sedge Wren in South Dakota has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

11×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sedge Wren Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sedge Wren has surged in South Dakota: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sedge Wren Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in South Dakota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.42–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in South Dakota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.42–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.293.2
20261.80.333.2
20271.80.363.3
20281.90.393.3
20291.90.423.3

Sedge Wren Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Sedge Wren in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lane3219991999
Roswell2920141972
Turton2520242010
White Lake1120112008
Tripp820191998
Volga720191969
Veblen720231974
Forbes520241969
Broadland420141999
Chamberlain320102010
Gorman320102010
Wilmot220241969
Lacreek219961996
Lennox120211972
Howard120241972
Geddes119941994
Raymond120211968
Crow Creek120192000
Ft Thompson120112011
Britton120231967
Gettysburg120231996
Long Lake120191987
Marcus120022002
White River119981998
Lane 2120142000

Sedge Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniavermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.