BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sedge Wren Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Sedge Wren in Missouri has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-91%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sedge Wren Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sedge Wren has collapsed in Missouri: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sedge Wren Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sedge Wren in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.22
20250.020.000.21
20260.020.000.21
20270.020.000.21
20280.010.000.21

Sedge Wren Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Sedge Wren in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rockingham219971978
Frazier220101969
Bolckow219841984
Kirksville220161996
Mcfall220231995
Deventer119751975
Barnard119991999
Watson120192004
Danville120042004
Syracuse119981998
Ohio119991973
Madison120051993
Huntsville120112011
Kahoka119711967
Sticklervill120101996
Trenton120161967
Tarkio119871969
Laclede120131998
Kingsville120092009
Frankford120032000

Sedge Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.