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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Minnesota has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 163% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 3.7–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+163%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±188.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 163% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 3.7–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026113.918
2027113.818
2028113.818
2029113.818
2030113.718

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oklee11620211969
Grygla9820171976
Erie8120171976
Badger5520181978
Lake Bronson4520111978
Wylie4320241970
Beltrami3220251967
Lockhart3020251993
Warroad2920251993
Greenbush2320251993
Debs1820251969
Nett Lake1620242013
Chokio1320241970
Chandler1220251969
Chatfield 21120252005
Little Fork820241969
Caledonia820101993
Mahtowa820231993
Whitewater820001994
Ash Creek720251975
Floodwood720251967
Lude720251978
Franklin720191993
Frontenac620231993
Big Stone620121998

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.