BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Minnesota has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 4.5–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±164.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 4.5–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025124.619
2026124.619
2027124.619
2028124.519
2029124.519

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oklee11620211969
Grygla9820171976
Erie8120171976
Badger5520181978
Lake Bronson4520111978
Wylie4320241970
Greenbush4220241993
Beltrami2820241967
Warroad2520241993
Debs2320241969
Lockhart2320241993
Nett Lake1620242013
Chandler1520231969
Chokio1320241970
Ash Creek1220241975
Lude1220231978
Redwood Fall1020241978
Chatfield 21020242005
St Stephen820161967
Little Fork820241969
Caledonia820101993
Mahtowa820231993
Mcgregor820241993
Whitewater820001994
Floodwood720241967

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.