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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Utah has surged: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+129%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has surged in Utah: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.76–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.76–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.672.9
20271.80.692.9
20281.80.712.9
20291.80.733.0
20301.90.763.0

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset Res2320181995
Bear River2020251992
Callao1820251992
Uintah Nf1319941990
Hill Creek1119931993
Kamas1120251997
Bicknell920251997
Randolph620251992
Leamington620161993
Snowville620251999
Fish Lake Nf619991992
Wellington 3520252022
Willow Creek520011997
E. Bear Lake520251995
Vernal520172006
Dragerton419731973
Woodruff420252005
Hanna420241997
Beck319861986
Castleton319741974
Jericho Junction320182006
Delta320251994
Wendover220051974
Timpie Spg219981980
Goshen220241968

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.