BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in New York has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in New York. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.99–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.99–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.61.55.7
20273.51.45.6
20283.41.35.5
20293.21.15.3
20303.10.995.2

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Orleans3920251967
Macdougall3020251969
Castile2220251967
E Youngstown2220251966
Hopkinton2219901969
Churchville2020251968
West Bangor1619991990
Sheridan1320251966
Nashville1320181967
Cayuga1220251969
Romulus1220001968
Watertown1120121967
Dryden1020251966
Branchport1020241967
Centerville1020151967
Argyle1020241968
Rushville920251968
East Java920251967
Naples920251966
Philadelphia920251980
Randolph820181967
Highmarket820251974
N Victory819721967
Oriskany Fls720251971
Mt Morris720251967

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.