BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in New York has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has fallen sharply in New York: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.0–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.0–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.61.55.7
20263.51.45.5
20273.31.35.4
20283.21.15.3
20293.11.05.1

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Orleans4820241967
Sheridan2220241966
Hopkinton2219901969
Castile2120241967
E Youngstown2120231966
Churchville2120241968
Macdougall1920241969
Rushville1920241968
West Bangor1619991990
Dryden1320241966
Nashville1320181967
Romulus1220001968
Watertown1120121967
Branchport1020241967
Centerville1020151967
Byron1020241967
Argyle1020241968
Ogdensburg1020241979
Naples920241966
Cayuga820241969
Randolph820181967
Philadelphia820241980
N Victory819721967
Mt Morris720241967
Highmarket720241974

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.