BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Vermont has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Vermont is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.1–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Vermont is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.1–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.21.15.2
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Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hinesburg2219941966
Greensboro1620241967
Waterville1019801971
Bristol720181995
Middlesex620241968
St Johnsbury420241970
Northfld Fls420211980
Hardwick420241966
Grand Isle420241967
Stowe420241988
Landgrove320241970
East Haven320241968
Fletcher320241969
North Pownal220111978
Gaysville220211977
Shaftsbury220221976
Stratton120211996
S Reading120241968
Post Mills120191967
S Wallingfrd120121980
W Rutland120231979
East Calais120241966
Newbury120031991
Colchester120211986
Newbury 2120092009

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.