BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Vermont has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Vermont is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.2–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Vermont is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.2–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.21.25.3
20273.21.25.3
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20293.21.25.3
20303.21.25.3

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hinesburg2219941966
Greensboro1420251967
Fletcher1220251969
Waterville1019801971
Bristol1020251995
East Haven620251968
Middlesex520251968
Landgrove420251970
Northfld Fls420251980
Hardwick420241966
Stowe420241988
North Pownal320251978
Grand Isle320251967
Gaysville220251977
St Johnsbury220251970
Stratton120211996
S Reading120241968
Post Mills120191967
Shaftsbury120251976
S Wallingfrd120121980
W Rutland120251979
East Calais120251966
Newbury120031991
Colchester120211986
Newbury 2120092009

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.