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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Alaska has surged: up 369% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+369%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has surged in Alaska: up 369% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Alaska is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 4.6–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Alaska is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 4.6–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026124.419
2027124.519
2028124.519
2029124.519
2030124.619

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy Valley11620251993
Red Dog11020251995
Galbraith L.8720251993
Toklat5820241982
St. Mary'S5520141993
Wasilla4119831983
Cold Bay (Short)3819921984
Kodiak3619841983
Nome3520231993
Maclaren3220251982
Homer3119821977
Cold Bay3120251993
Cape Nome3120241993
Savage2820251986
Goodnews Bay2720051999
King Salmon2520251993
Teller2420241993
Chiniak2020251985
Togiak River2020051999
Dillingham (Short)1719841984
Kalifonsky1620251982
Kodiak 21520251985
Moose Pass1419921983
Kotzebue1420252001
Delta1320241995

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.