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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Alaska has surged: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+365%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has surged in Alaska: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Alaska is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 4.7–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Alaska is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 4.7–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025124.519
2026124.619
2027124.619
2028124.720
2029124.720

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy Valley9720241993
Galbraith L.9320241993
Red Dog8120241995
Toklat5820241982
St. Mary'S5520141993
Wasilla4119831983
Cold Bay (Short)3819921984
Savage3720241986
Kodiak3619841983
Nome3520231993
Cold Bay3420241993
Homer3119821977
Cape Nome3120241993
King Salmon2720241993
Goodnews Bay2720051999
Teller2420241993
Chiniak2120241985
Kodiak 22120241985
Togiak River2020051999
Dillingham (Short)1719841984
Monahan1620211983
Kalifonsky1520231982
Moose Pass1419921983
Maclaren1320241982
Delta1320241995

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.