BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Pennsylvania has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has fallen sharply in Pennsylvania: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.072.2
20271.10.042.2
20281.10.022.1
20291.10.002.1
20301.00.002.1

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Akeley1819791966
Portersville1219881988
Arnot1020251969
Austinville920251967
St College620251969
Little Marsh520241968
Rasselas420221969
Starlight419921972
Harrisville420251995
Sugar Grove420251980
Slippery Rk319891973
Logue320231976
Poyntelle320241969
Rector319771966
Martinsburg320251970
Clearfield319731967
Garrett320231971
Akron319971989
Brunnerville 2320212011
Clover220251981
Harmonsburg220251966
Teepleville220251966
N Washington220211967
N Pine Grove220251969
Pottersdale219881984

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonrhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.