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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Pennsylvania has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has fallen sharply in Pennsylvania: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.01–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.01–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.102.2
20261.10.082.2
20271.10.062.2
20281.10.042.2
20291.10.012.1

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Akeley1819791966
Portersville1219881988
Sugar Grove920241980
Little Marsh520241968
Leola520241998
Rasselas420221969
Austinville420241967
Honesdale420241972
Starlight419921972
Slippery Rk319891973
Harmonsburg320231966
Logue320231976
Poyntelle320241969
Rector319771966
St College320241969
Clearfield319731967
Garrett320231971
Akron319971989
Brunnerville 2320212011
Schaefferstown 2320232002
Mill Run320231978
Clover220241981
Ferris Crnrs220241966
Teepleville220241966
Sigel220241981

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonrhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.