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Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Maryland has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Savannah Sparrow Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has surged in Maryland: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Savannah Sparrow Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Maryland is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.24–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Maryland is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.24–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.230.78
20260.510.240.78
20270.510.240.79
20280.520.240.79
20290.520.240.79

Savannah Sparrow Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emmitsburg620241967
Jennings620241995
Theodore519681968
Mt Nebo419911969
Fowblesburg319771969
Accident320171992
Vindex220151967
Wolfsville220021977
Olney219881972
Accident 2220212018
Floyd120211967
Williamsport120241966
Smithsburg120091982
Warfieldsbrg120182008
Pleasant Val119681968
Eklo119831983
Randallstown119661966
Madonna120192009
Elkton120101992
Steyer120181996
Finzel120231995

Savannah Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.